An expat comments on the 2004 elections

Am I an outsider looking in?

I was a couple months too young in 1980 to vote, but I was fiercely anti-Reagan, seeing him as reckless and a warmonger. Even in 1984, however, I realized I was out of the mainstream: young, idealistic, full of enthusiasm but without much knowledge or experience. I didn't yet pay taxes, and wasn’t planning on serving in the military. Thus Reagan’s policies, with the exception of more difficult student loans (and the fear, in the back of my mind, that he might launch a strike against the Soviets) did not affect me directly: I knew I was in the minority, and in a way it was "fun" to have Reagan as a target for criticism.

In 1988, I never got enthusiastic about Dukakis. He was a decent man, but not a leader. Bush Sr. didn't seem like a bad guy, was certainly smarter and more experienced than his old boss, and had been a pretty moderate Republican -- before 1980. I felt he deserved a chance. In retrospect, he was a very good president. And even by 1992 I didn't think he'd done an awful job. Sure, Quayle worried me, and the whining to the Japanese was offensive, but on the flipside I thought he did a masterful job in Kuwait. Again, I was in the minority, and was comfortable with it.

Yet with Clinton in 92 and 96, I felt part of the mainstream. The numbers backed us up. We were dealing with the deficit for the first time, stock market, and my own fortunes soared (this was before I abandoned high-tech for the more creative (and satisfying) field of film and television production). I landed a marketing job with IBM, in their new Internet division. I helped develop a briefing for Al Gore on public key encryption, and he asked intelligent questions. It felt good to be part of the machine, especially the internet engine that was driving the economy.

By the time 2000 rolled around, I thought Bush Jr. was for the most part harmless -- how bad could he be? One could argue that Gore might have won the election, so again even though I was supporting the "losing" guy, I felt like I was in the majority. "Never again," we heard, and the Dems started mobilizing for 2004 right away. There was tremendous sympathy and momentum, and their anger seemed justified. Bush immediately started governing as if he had a mandate, certainly not like someone who owed his presidency to his brother and some judges appointed by their father.

The movement grew. I started feeling the energy, the thirst to right a wrong, as early as 2002. The invasion of Iraq clinched it: Bush had, in less than three years, destroyed every single good thing the Clinton years had brought us: A strong stock market, deficit reduction, world peace, the respect of the rest of the world, environmental reform… all of it was suddenly gone. It was an outrage. By the spring of 2004, when Bush was hovering around a 40% approval rating, I thought: Finally. We're going to fix this mess.

I followed the polls every day. I watched the debates, even staying up late to catch the final one on the BBC. I read the stats: An incumbent rarely gets more than his approval rating, as the undecideds go overwhelmingly for the new guy. Heck, my Redskins even lost to the Packers that Sunday. I went into that final night confident of a small victory, but a victory nonetheless. I had the TV set up to shuttle back and forth between BBC News and CNN International, my spreadsheet from electoral-vote.com all ready to be filled out. It was going to happen. Kerry had survived the BS of the Swift Boat veterans, the attacks on Theresa, had won all three debates, had a huge bipartisan team of military and former foreign service experts, many of whom crossed party lines to support him. Hell, Bush Sr. would, in a vacuum, probably have been a Kerry guy. He had appeal, he had momentum, and thanks to George Soros, he had cash. It was ours to win.

And then it played out in front of me. The start was great – exit polls reflecting strong Kerry numbers, especially in Florida and Ohio. There was no way Jeb would try to cook the books, like he did in Volusia County in 2000; if he was going to change the outcome, he’d have to work harder this time -- Too many people watching. Sure, Ohio was using the Diebold machines, but would their CEO really put tradoors into the secret code? I wasn’t worried.

I stayed up all night. It got worse. Virginia, my home state, went overwhelmingly Bush, despite being potentially in play for the first time in my lifetime. We held onto New Jersey, but couldn’t gain any ground. Late, late London time, we got Pennsylvania, but lost Florida.

A few minutes ago, Kerry conceded the election. And here we are. It wasn't stolen this time. The voters spoke, and they've decided, yeah, record deficits, more jobs lost than the depression, environmental disasters, the worst attack on US soil ever,the first war the US started (ever), the absolute hatred of the rest of the world, a collapsing dollar, an enormous trade deficit, and more Americans in poverty since the Depression: This is what we want. More of the same.

So I felt like I was in the majority this time, but I'm not. I'm on the outside looking in, and I just don't get it: I haven't talked to a single Gore 2000 person who's switched to Bush. Not one. This includes work, play, family, and even in my virtual online activities (as a screenwriter, I’ve been known to create personas, try them out online, and see how people react. It’s very useful). Not a single Gore person came out and said “changed my mind.” But somehow, Bush picked up millions more votes than in 2000. He took one fewer state, but got more EVs due to the population shifts since 2000.

I have no idea where these people came from, or what they're thinking. I’m in the minority – clearly -- and can’t figure out why. Yes, I know that people of limited education and/or intelligence (they are not necessarily the same thing) take comfort in Bush’s simple words, simple sentences, and black-and-white positioning. Evangelicals like that Bush thinks the world will end in Rapture in less than two decades, so there is no reason to worry about global warming or finite resources. The wealthy love his tax breaks, the jingoists love the way he carefully uses race and religion as a deep divider. The hawks, most of whom have never fired a shot in anger, like the fact that we are “kicking some A-rab butt.” The gun nuts love the way he let the assault weapons ban die, despite strong support for its renewal from the public. The folks who think a Ford Crown Vic is a great example of an American car, but a Honda Accord comes from Japan, yes, Bush is their guy. Simple, upfront, direct, easy to understand. I knew these people existed, these truck-driving, gun-in-one-hand, Bible-in-other, never-owned-a-passport “regular folk.”

...I just never knew there were 100 million of them. Who voted.

Ok, that's not completely fair. I realise there are many, many voters who simply disagree with me on some important issue, or who feel strongly about one. Reproductive rights, for instance: I'm on the fence, while many people feel abortion should be outlawed, and voted for Bush on that issue alone. I can respect that.

Still. I used to feel pretty savvy politically, but now I feel like a total neophyte. In fact... I feel worse than when I was 17, and wondering how the hell the country could toss out a good and decent man like Jimmy Carter for an empty suit like Reagan. At least then I could blame it all on youth and disconnection. Now I'm 41, a professional, (sort of) high wage earner, educated, world-travelled, etc. And I have less of a clue than that skinny, frizzy-headed 17-year old in Fauquier High School.

So tonight I will walk across the street to Hyde Park. I’ll sit on a bench, face west, and drink a toast of farewell to the land of my birth, the United States. I will miss her. I will mourn her. But I no longer belong with her, nor she with me. When I came to work in the UK, I always assumed it would be “for a while.” Now, I suddenly realise that I feel more at home here, and more in touch with these odd Brits, who drive on the wrong side of the road and confuse the terms “public” and “private” schools, than I do my undeniably God-fearing conservative brethren back in the states. Brethren who are celebrating tonight about the re-election of a man, who to my mind, was the worst president in American history.

I will drink that toast as an American citizen.

Perhaps, tomorrow, I will go to the UK’s Home Office web site, and see what it takes to become a naturalised British citizen. Heck, I’ve already started spelling “realise” and “naturalised” in the Brit manner. I’m sure I can master the accent in a few years.

God save the Queen?